On the verge of homelessness, incarceration and substance abuse : an analysis and close-up of at-risk youth aging out of the foster care system in the United States

Abstract

At first, this study was going to analyze Canadian youth aging out of the foster care system, but due to the fact that there is no national dataset compiled, this was not possible. Using national data from the United States instead, the National Youth in Transition Dataset for FY2011 was provided with special permission from the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect. This study investigates whether or not having experienced homelessness in the past has a large effect in experiencing it in the future, once the youth has aged out of the system during wave two and three. The same is done for incarceration and substance abuse. Furthermore, this study also measures other variables which may increase the probability of a youth experiencing one of these three negative outcomes. Since all variables, independent and dependant, are dichotomous, the linear probability model with fixed effects is applied. It is found that having experienced the outcome in the past does indeed play a role in experiencing it in the future, whether it be homelessness, incarceration or substance abuse. It is also found that, Asians on average, are less likely to experience homelessness compared to others, African Americans are more likely to experience incarceration but less likely to experience substance abuse out of all ethnic groups, leaving Caucasians more at-risk. Identifying who is most vulnerable among those already at-risk is important. Policy makers and different levels of government need to cooperate to improve the outcomes of those aging out of their care.